At the end of this segment from the Radiolab podcast, Are You Sure?, Pascal's Wager is mentioned as an example of making decisions based on odds. Pascal's Wager can be represented by the following decision matrix:
Pascal argues that the rational decision is to believe in God. In the podcast, one of the hosts of Radiolab claims that belief in God that is based on odds of "winning" or "losing" is a lesser form of belief; less sincere perhaps, but certainly not as good as belief in God for the "right" reasons.
If so, then, presumably, God would be able to tell the difference between sincere belief for the "right" reasons and belief for personal gain, since God is supposed to be all-knowing.
If this is correct, then is belief in God still the rational decision to make, as Pascal argues? And even if one decides to believe, is that going to do one any good (in terms of winning the "jackpot")?